Overview of the 2020 Senate Races and Ranking Democrats' Odds

Image from @cnn

In 2020, everything is up for grabs, including the Senate. Currently, the GOP caucus holds a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats will need to net at least 4 seats or 3 seats and the vice presidency to regain majority control. Control of the Senate will be key for an array of issues, including approving the president's appointments to the courts and cabinet and passing policy. On the surface, it may seem as though Democrats face an uphill battle as they defend seats in deep-red Alabama and the notorious battleground of Michigan, but thanks to an otherwise favorable Senate map and a persistent D+8 lead in the generic congressional ballot, Democrats have a real chance to win back control of the chamber for the first time since the 2014 red wave in which the GOP netted a whopping 9 seats. Below, I rank Democrats' odds in the 14 most competitive Senate races, considering factors like candidate fundraising, polling, state elasticity, and state history of split-ticket voting.

14. Kentucky, battle of the Mc's
Republican incumbent - Likely R hold

Kentucky is the home of GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Running against him is former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, the first woman to fly a combat mission for the Marine Corps. She was widely hyped in her 2018 race against Andy Barr in Kentucky's 6th, but ultimately fell short by 3.2 points. Nonetheless, upon entering the 2020 Senate race, she was able to capitalize on the left's enthusiasm to remove McConell from office. Straight out the gates, McGrath secured the endorsement of the campaign arm of the Senate Democrats, the DSCC, and has raised a whopping $46.9 million, compared to McConell's paltry $36.6 million. However, an unexpectedly tough primary race against progressive insurgent Charles Booker forced McGrath to answer some difficult questions on her record and spend boat loads of precious campaign funds. Now, with a freshly damaged reputation, McGrath reports $16 millon cash-on-hand, the same as McConnell. 

What was once seen as a promising race, bolstered by McConnell's status as the least popular senator in the country, is now a pipe-dream for Democrats, as they grapple with the reality that Trump is still almost certain to win the state by double-digits. As much as Democrats would love to unseat McConnell, the polls paint a different picture.

13. South Carolina, Graham's race to lose
Republican incumbent - Likely R hold

The race in South Carolina is similar to Kentucky in a number of ways. A deep-red state in the South featuring a Republican incumbent that stokes the ire of the left like few others, and a Democratic challenger that has been able to feed off of this frustration to fuel record-breaking fundraising numbers. Republican Lindsey Graham is the face of this race, noted for his transformation from Trump critic (hilariously displayed in this campaign ad) to Trump sycophant. Democrat Jaime Harrison is running a disciplined campaign and has raised an impressive $28.6 million, including $13.9 million in the second quarter alone. Polls even suggest a single-digit race at the top of the ticket, which could provide an opening for Harrison to close the gap and win the race.

However, at the end of the day, 2020 would be the first time South Carolina has voted for a Democrat for president since 1976, when the nation's parties looked quite different than they do today. While Trump's margin might be slimmer than a typical Republican, he is still strongly favored to win in South Carolina. In today's hyper-polarized political climate, the Senate race is likely to follow.

Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Senator up in 2020 | Image from @politico

12. Alabama, the last southern Democrat
Democrat incumbent - Likely R flip

In 2017, Senator Doug Jones did something no one thought possible: he ran as a liberal Democrat in Alabama and won. After Sessions' fateful appointment as U.S. Attorney General, Jones' opponent in the special election was Republican Roy Moore, two-time Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court (and two-time removed), who received a number of accusations regarding sexual misconduct with minors. Some data suggests Moore may even trigger Israeli pedophile detection technology. Record African-American voter turnout, along with many conservative voters opting to stay home or write in names like Alabama's head football coach Nick Saban, propelled Jones to a slim 1.6% margin of victory.

This time, however, Jones is running against a more formidable candidate in the likes of former Auburn head football coach Tommy Tuberville. Tuberville is a milder candidate than Moore or Sessions (whom he recently beat in the Senate GOP primary, busting Sessions' dreams of reclaiming his seat), but still has some controversy. In 1999, he punished a player charged with raping a 15-year-old with a one-game suspension, and has been subject to carpetbagging allegations. Meanwhile, Jones is hoping to make the most of his newfound incumbency and his 15:1 cash on hand advantage to overcome Alabama's partisan lean. Nonetheless, in a state that Trump won by almost 28 points in 2016, Jones faces a steep uphill climb in his efforts to cling onto this Senate seat during a presidential election year.

11. Kansas, going blue or just anti-Trump?
Open race - Likely R hold

Kansas is one of five Trump states that Trump failed to improve on Romney's 2012 margins. Declines in the other 4 states, Georgia, Arizona, Texas, and Utah, can be explained by a trend in GOP losses in the Sun Belt, or, in the case of Utah, a complex political climate heavily influenced by the state's Mormon population. Kansas, on the other hand, stands separate. As one of the most highly educated red states, Kansas is not as friendly a state to Trump as its electoral history might suggest.

Ultimately, Democrats' chances will depend on who the GOP nominates on the August 4 primary. The frontrunner is Rep. Roger Marshall, a relative moderate who his hoping to ride establishment support and dissatisfaction with his opponent, Kris Kobach, to victory. Former Kansas Secretary of State, Kobach is running after a stinging loss to Democrat Laura Kelly in the 2018 governor race. Closely associated with the infamous Brownback administration, and tainted with the ghost of his 2018 defeat, Kobach would be Democrats' best chance of electing a Democrat Senator from Kansas for the first time since 1932. In fact, the single-largest spender in the contest is a Democrat-linked pro-Kobach super PAC. In their hopes to recreate their 2018 electoral success, Democrats are supporting Republican-turned-Democrat state Senator Barbara "first female physician in the Senate" Bollier. For now, the state's partisan lean keeps this race low on Democrats' hit-list.

10. Alaska, Election Twitter's favorite state
Republican incumbent - Lean R hold

Up in Alaska, Independent Dr. Al Gross is challenging Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. Sullivan narrowly ousted Democrat Mark Begich, heir of the Begich political dynasty, in the 2014 wave election. Although Alaska has elected its fair share of Democrats, it remains a relatively Republican-leaning state—which is why Trump's 2016 victory left a lot to be desired. While Trump won by 15 points, he did so with only 51% of the vote—the same percent as in Iowa, a state many would comfortably call a swing state. Considering that 2020 is widely seen as a referendum on Trump, Alaska was the most elastic state in the country in 2018, and Biden's margins in the polls, many have speculated that this race was being overlooked by elections handicappers. Recently, a crowdfunded Election Twitter poll found the Senate race was in fact wide-open and Biden was within the margin of error against Trump. 

Because Gross is still poorly known, it remains to be seen if he will be able to capitalize on the moment, but there is reason for Democrats to be cautiously optimistic. In the meantime, count on Twitter to lend a helping hand to their favorite state.

9. Texas, next cycle, I promise!
Republican incumbent - Lean R hold

Republican John Cornyn has served as Senator from Texas since 2002, and is now running for his fourth term. He's a popular Senator whose style is quite mild-mannered compared to the populism of Ted Cruz, with whom he serves the state of Texas in the Senate. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke's leveraged his charisma and talent on the stump, which often drew comparisons to Obama, and a longstanding distaste among both sides of the aisle for Cruz's style of politics, to draw a close race. O'Rourke's defeat took the wind out of Democrats' sails in Texas, and enthusiasm has been further dampened by primary race drama this cycle. Nowhere is this more evident than the lackluster fundraising on the left this year, paling in comparison to O'Rourke's stunning fundraising numbers in 2018. 

USAF veteran and 2016 Fiorina supporter, MJ Hegar is the Democratic nominee after posting a single-digit win on the July 14 Democratic primary. In her favor is Texas' leftward shift in recent years—21 points since 2004. While Senate race polling has not been promising (perhaps Hegar just needs to become better known), some recent polling has shown Biden leading Trump at the top of the ticket. Given that pollsters largely underestimated Democratic strength in Texas in 2018, there is hope that Biden could carry Texas and Hegar could follow. In the meantime, she will need to boost her fundraising to compete in Texas' expensive media markets and overcome Cornyn's favorability.

8. Montana, Big Split-ticket Country
Republican incumbent - Toss-up

Sixteen years of a Democrat in the Governor's Mansion, a Democrat Senator halfway through his third term, and an incumbent Republican Senator fighting for his political life in 2020. No, this isn't a state of the coastal elite, but Montana, which voted for Donald Trump by 20 points in 2016. In the 2018 midterms, despite losses elsewhere in Trump-won states, Democrat Jon Tester of Montana held onto his Senate seat by nearly 4 points. 

Montana's long history of electing Democrats to statewide office, including legend Max Baucus, while voting red for president, has managed to survive the Trump era. After a brief and disappointing bid for president, popular incumbent Governor Steve Bullock gave into demands to run for Senate against Republican incumbent Steve Daines, immediately clearing the primary field. While Bullock is perhaps the only man in the country that could make this seat competitive during a presidential election year, there are reasons to think that this race won't come easy for him. Firstly, in today's hyper-partisan political climate, split-ticket voting is becoming increasingly rare. In Tester's third race in 2018, despite running in a national environment that was 7-points bluer, he won by the same margin as he did in 2012. Secondly, Bullock is challenging an incumbent, and while incumbency status doesn't mean what it used to, it still helps. In any case, Bullock will be able to rely on his record as governor to level the playing field in what's shaping up to be a nail-biter of a race.

Senator Joni Ernst is facing an unexpectedly difficult reelection campaign | Image from @dscc

7. Iowa, Joni's pissed
Republican incumbent - Toss-up

In perhaps the starkest view of how drastically the state of the presidential election has changed over the past several months, Iowa is now anyone's game despite Trump winning by 10 points in 2016. This is not only because Iowa is a fairly elastic state, but also its population is predominantly made up of the white working class voters with whom Biden has been making his notable gains in the polls. This has trickled down-ballot, where Joni Ernst is running for a second term in the Senate. As a source close to her campaign put it, "They should not be in a competitive race."

Once considered a rising star in the GOP, Ernst is in serious danger of losing her seat this November. Her opponent is Theresa Greenfield, one of Democrats' strongest candidates this cycle. She has a compelling story, having lost her husband while she was expecting their second child, and extols Social Security benefits as saving her family from the brink. Her candidacy has fueled record-breaking fundraising, which Ernst has pointedly noted is an effort to flip the seat. Ernst's statements comparing Trump's leadership on coronavirus to Obama's Ebola response, as well as her comments in support of filling a SCOTUS vacancy during a lame duck session, have helped Greenfield characterize her opponent as just another McConnell crony. It is important to note, though, that Iowa's elasticity is a double-edged sword. If pandemic conditions improve drastically before the election, Ernst is well-poised to benefit from a swing in the national mood.

6. Georgia, BOGO Senate races 
Republican incumbent - Toss-up

Home of President Jimmy Carter, the Peach State features not one, but two competitive Senate races this cycle, thanks to the retirement of Senator Johnny Isakson. However, the November special election is a jungle primary and there will almost certainly be a January runoff. This overview instead focuses on Republican incumbent David Perdue's campaign for a second term. 

Once a Democratic bastion, Georgia took a sharp turn to the right 20 years ago and Democrats have struggled since. However, this dynamic has started to reverse course thanks to growth in Atlanta and its suburbs, and Democrats are hoping to continue building on Clinton's gains in 2016 and Abrams' in 2018. The opponent in the regularly scheduled Senate election this year is David Perdue, first-term incumbent and first-cousin to former Governor of Georgia and current Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue.

Running against Perdue is Democrat Jon Ossoff, whose name folks might remember from the most expensive House race in U.S. history in 2017, which he narrowly lost to Karen Handel. This 33-year-old investigative journalist is running a disciplined (albeit generic) Democratic campaign, sticking to support for a public option, avoiding the large sweeping proposals of progressives, and labeling his opponent as a puppet of the corporate elite. Despite Ossoff trailing in fundraising, polling is already showing that this race will likely be decided at the margins, and there is reason to think this will carry through to November. Georgia is one of the most inelastic states in the country, thanks in part to a large, solidly Democratic African American population, and a large, solidly Republican rural white population. Ossoff can hope that a substantial get out the vote effort and demographic changes since 2016 will work in his favor, but Georgia is anyone's race.

5. North Carolina and the cursed Senate seat

Republican incumbent - Lean D gain

North Carolina is yet another state that has trended leftward for some years, although that trend has slowed down and today the state sits at 3 points to the right of the country on average. Republican incumbent Thom Tillis is running for a second term in North Carolina's infamous Class II Senate seat that has not reelected a Senator since 1996. His challenger is Iraq and Afghanistan war veteran Cal Cunningham. 

Another top recruit for Democrats this cycle, Cunningham is giving Tillis a tougher race than he was anticipating. Despite lacking the donor network of an incumbent, Cunningham is running neck-and-neck with Tillis on fundraising, including a record-breaking second quarter where he outraised Tillis 3 to 1. Tillis has been getting slammed for his vote supporting Trump's national emergency border wall scheme and comments that suggested the state's Hispanic population were to blame for spreading coronavirus. Over the past month, Cunningham has solidified his lead in the polls, with Tillis failing to lead in any of the 11 released since June 24. With less than 4 months until the election, Biden's competitive polling in the state, and North Carolina's relative inelasticity, this is beginning to seem like Cunningham's race to lose.

4. Maine, Kavanaugh on the ballot

Republican incumbent - Lean D gain

Democrats have had their crosshairs on this seat since Republican incumbent Susan Collins voted for SCOTUS nominee Brett Kavanaugh in 2018. A Crowdpac fund was immediately launched that raised over $4 million for Collins' eventual opponent, who we now know is Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon. Collins, who won election to her fourth term by a whopping 37 points, is perhaps the greatest victim this cycle of Trump-era hyper-partisanship. Once hailed as an icon of bipartisanship, Collins shattered this image with her Kavanaugh vote. Justice Kavanaugh's recent opinions in Supreme Court cases regarding women's rights defy Collins' stance that Kavanaugh is a man of precedence who respects Roe v. Wade as settled law, but Collins is digging in her heels. Polling agrees that her favorability has tanked, and along with it went her reputation as an independent voice for Maine. 

Indian-Armenian Sara Gideon has made windfall gains in fundraising due to the surge in enthusiasm to unseat Collins. In quarter two alone, Gideon raised $8 million, more than double Collins, and just received access to the $4 million Crowdpac fund after winning her primary. Altogether in the race so far, Gideon has outraised Collins $23 million to $16 million. These goliath funds will be plenty for saturating Maine's inexpensive media markets. Given Biden's lead in the polls, Clinton's 2016 win in Maine, Gideon's fundraising advantage, and the era's partisan divide, all signs are pointing toward a Gideon win this fall, though it might be close.

3. Arizona, money printer go brrr

Republican incumbent - Likely D gain

Once the home of Barry Goldwater, father of the modern conservative movement, Arizona is now a solidly purple state. Although in 2016 Trump narrowly won Arizona, in the 2018 midterms, Democrats flipped a seat in Arizona's House delegation for a 5-4 majority. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema became the first openly bisexual Senator in U.S. history and first female Senator from Arizona after winning Jeff Flake's vacated Senate seat. Sinema's opponent was the first female fighter pilot to command a squadron in combat and U.S. representative for Arizona's 2nd, Martha McSally. After McSally's narrow loss, Republican Governor Doug Ducey appointed her to John McCain's old Senate seat. He hoped that she could use her campaign experience and top-of-the-ticket support in a presidential election year to win the race for completing McCain's Senate term, which ends in 2022. However, things are not looking good for McSally.

Her opponent this time around is astronaut and former U.S. Navy combat pilot Mark Kelly. Widely considered Democrats' strongest recruit this cycle (except for Steve Bullock maybe), Kelly is the husband of former representative Gabby Giffords, who nearly died in the 2011 Tuscon shooting. As noted by Twitter, Kelly's strong bio and careful campaigning has led to truly insane fundraising numbers—he has hauled in $45.7 million, to McSally's $30.0 million, and posts a 2:1 cash on hand advantage. Some Republican strategists lambast McSally as a poor campaigner, but it could just be that Arizona Republicans have lost touch with a state that is slipping out of their grasp. That said, McSally's campaigning has drawn criticism from both sides of the aisle, like when she proposed a vacation tax credit in the midst of a pandemic. McSally is now faced with the prospect of losing her second Senate race in two years. Some say don't count her out just yet, but I wouldn't judge you if you did.

Veteran John James faces tough odds in his second Senate race | Image from @John James for Senate

2. Michigan, Gary who?
Democrat incumbent - Likely D hold

On the theme of losing two Senate races in two years, Republican combat veteran John James is competing again in Michigan after losing to Senator Debbie Stabenow in 2018. While a loss is a loss no matter how you spin it, he did outperform expectations in a blue wave year. Republicans were initially excited at the prospect of James' candidacy, as he would be the caucus' second African American Senator and they thought he could improve the party's image among the Black community. They argued James would fare better in a presidential election year, and against a lesser known incumbent, Gary Peters. However, Donald Trump has made it difficult for a Black man to run as a Republican this cycle, by stoking racial tensions and forcing James into an uncomfortable position wherein he can either support the GOP leader, or risk alienating the GOP base by speaking out.

Although James has reported some decent fundraising hauls, the polls are showing that a Senate seat will likely be out of his reach once again. Trump's 2016 win in Michigan seems more and more like a fluke as his reelection campaign drags on, and James won't stand much of a chance if Biden wins the state. This is fortunate for Gary Peters, who is by many measures an unimpressive first-term incumbent. He started his reelection campaign unknown to 36% of Michiganders. Regardless, thanks to partisan politics and a presidential election year, Peters likely has this in the bag.

1. Colorado, "I'm not cut out to be a Senator"
Republican incumbent - Likely D gain

Perhaps some of you remember the 2019 scramble to find a challenger to Republican incumbent Cory Gardner. It turns out that despite former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper's repeated denials, he never ruled out a Senate run. He ended his ill-fated presidential bid in August of last year to join the crowded Senate Democratic primary. Gardner made sure to capitalize on this change in tune, running advertisements mocking Hickenlooper for statements like "I'm not cut out to be a Senator." Most of the primary field cleared out upon Hickenlooper's entry, but not former Colorado Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff. Initially considered a washed-up longshot, Romanoff spun the primary into a contentious progressive vs. moderate fight, hammering Hickenlooper for his support of fracking. Romanoff managed this despite a middle-of-the-road, tough on crime, anti-immigration record as a state legislator. Compounding Hickenlooper's problems, the former governor faced ethics violation charges and floundered by skipping a subpoena. Nonetheless, Hickenlooper still won the primary by a solid margin. 

Looking back, it is hard to miss the irony among the clamoring to get Hickenlooper into the race, considering he has run a rather mediocre campaign. At the end of the day, a glass of water (D) could win the election here thanks to Colorado's newfound blue tilt and the national environment. Despite challenging a talented incumbent, surviving a contentious primary, and facing ethics violations, Hickenlooper will probably still win this race by double-digits and a margin greater than any other Democrat challenger this cycle.