Veepstakes Overview: Ranking Biden's Vice Presidential Picks

The first woman ever on a major party ticket, Geraldine Ferraro speaks at the Democratic National Convention, San Francisco, 1984 @AP/Rex/Shutterstock

Joe Biden's Vice President announcement could come any day now and the stakes are as high as ever. In an unprecedented move, during the March 15 Democratic primary debate, Biden announced that his VP will be a woman. 

The first time a woman made it onto a major party ticket was in 1984, when Demcorat Walter Mondale, far behind in the polls, chose Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate. Initially getting a major boost in the polls, the campaign soon suffered from intense scrutiny into Ferraro and her husband's finances. They lost in a landslide to Ronald Reagan. It wasn't until 2008 that another woman made it onto a ticket, when Republican John McCain announced Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. They, too, lost in a landslide. 

This year will be the first time that a presidential campaign will add a woman to the ticket not as a Hail Mary, but as a serious consideration of the strength and value a woman can bring to the country as Vice President. The experiences of Geraldine Ferraro, Sarah Palin, and Hillary Clinton have shown us that when women have presidential aspirations, they become the object of hyperintense media scrutiny into their credentials, appearance, and families. Because the evidence for sexism in presidential politics is clear, I won't pontificate beyond the notion that this VP pick is unlike any other this country has ever seen, and Biden's campaign deliberations will be reflective of this.

Below, I rank the women Biden is considering for VP by likelihood of their selection. I tried considering factors that the Biden campaign has made clear are important, like being "simpatico" and "ready on day one," as well as traditionally important qualities in a VP, like having campaign experience, boosting the ticket in battleground states, unifying the party, and complementing the President's perceived weak-points. On the other hand, I tried to avoid feeding too heavily into candidate-of-the-week punditry and tea leaf reading. Now, without further ado:

@AP Photo/David Goldman

13. Gina Raimondo

The tail end of the list is carried by two-term Governor of Rhode Island, Gina Raimondo. Re-elected by a wide margin in 2018, Raimondo was broadly unpopular in her second term until coronavirus happened, and she was lauded for her state's response. She is a centrist democrat (she supported Bloomberg's presidential bid) so she likely agrees with or is to the right of Biden on most issues, and at 49, she would bring some youth to the ticket. However, one has to wonder what a moderate White woman with minimal national profile from a comfortably blue state brings to the ticket that Biden doesn't already. If the case couldn't be made for Klobuchar, it's hard to see Raimondo faring any better.

@AP/Jim Cole

12. Maggie Hassan

Though low on this list, New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan arguably has one of the most impressive résumés here. Former Governor of New Hampshire, she is one of only two women in the country (the other being her fellow New Hampshire Senator, Jeanne Shaheen), to ever serve as both a Governor and a Senator. Also, although New Hampshire is only worth four electoral votes, it is nonetheless a battleground state. However, given that Clinton won New Hampshire in 2016, if Democrats are struggling there in 2020, then the race is likely already lost. Additionally, it is unclear what Senator Hassan's personal relationship is like with Biden, and though she is confirmed to have been invited to the vetting process, the lack of reporting on her candidacy suggests she has not progressed very far. Unfortunately, among a pool of talented and crendentialed women, a strong résumé isn't enough.

11. Stacey Abrams

@AP/Butch Dill

Stacey Abrams rose to national prominence during the 2018 Georgia Governor's race, which she narrowly lost by 2 points amid widespread allegations of voter suppression. Prior to this, her highest ranking position was minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives. Abrams hopefuls and Abrams alike suggest that she would be able to boost Black voter turnout, especially in the battleground state of Georgia. Additionally, though VP polls are basically just a measure of how well-known candidates are, Abrams has performed well in some in spite of her relatively low national profie. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that Biden selects someone whose highest elected position was State Representative. Back in June, despite reporting to the contrary, Abrams said in an interview with Stephen Colbert that the Biden campaign had yet to contact her

@USA TODAY, Wochit

10. Keisha Lance Bottoms

Keisha Lance Bottoms is the current mayor of Atlanta, Georgia and a longtime Biden supporter. She endorsed him in June 2019 after Harris' offensive on Biden's record with segregationist Senators. Jim Clyburn, whose endorsement was critical in delivering Biden the nomination, reportedly first suggested Bottoms to Biden's vetting team. A VP Bottoms could boost turnout in the Atlanta-area to help the ticket in Georgia, and her nomination would be seen as reaffirming his support to the African American community that was so pivotal in making him the nominee. However, it would be quite the leap from Mayor of the 37th largest city in the country to first in line for President of the U.S. And while additional turnout in Georgia would be nice thanks to its Senate races, winning there would likely just be icing on the cake for the presidential election. It is more likely that Biden has floated Bottoms' name to boost her national profile as a thanks for her continued support.

@AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

9. Val Demings

Val Demings was first elected to Florida's 10th congressional district in 2016, and before that she served as the first female police chief of the Orlando Police Department. Demings supporters suggest that as a VP she would boost Black voter turnout, she could deliver the key swing state of Florida to Democrats, and it would be difficult for Trump to slander a cop. However, she is poorly known outside of her district so she likely wouldn't boost the ticket much, if at all, in Florida. During her tenure as Orlando police chief, she came under fire for allegations of excessive-force, and there is no doubt this would be the focus of intense scrutiny if she were VP.  Finally, she lacks the Senate and governing experience many of her competitors have, which doesn't bode well on the "ready on day one" front. Her candidacy comes with many risks, but without a compelling "why" for her to secure the spot over others.

@AP/Michigan Office of the Governor

8. Gretchen Whitmer

Gretchen Whitmer was elected Governor of Michigan in the 2018 midterms by an impressive 10 point margin. She rose to national attention when Trump referred to her as "that woman from Michigan" as she handled her state's COVID response, for which she has received high marks. Considering that Michigan is likely a must-win Trump state for the Biden team this November, a Whitmer boost could be game-changing. However, ripping a Governor away from her post in the middle of a pandemic isn't great optics. Anything that goes wrong in her state while she's campaigning could prove to be a major liability, as she would be seen to be responsible in a way that someone like a Senator would not. Moreover, while it feels like a lifetime since the 2018 midterms, Whitmer has only been in office for less than two years. She is still relatively under-experienced compared to some women on this list.

@The New York Time/Erin Schaff

7. Karen Bass

In 2008, Karen Bass became the first Black woman to serve as Speaker of a state legislative body when she was elected Speaker of the California State Assembly, and the five-term California Congresswoman currently serves as Chair of the powerful Congressional Black Caucus. Bass proponents suggest she could appeal to leftists while remaining respected by centrists, her lowkey persona would mesh well with Biden's basement campaign, and as a Black woman she could effectively rise up to the cultural moment. However, statements Bass made praising Fidel Castro after the Cuban dictator's death won't play well with South Florida Cubans when it inevitably ends up in a GOP ad (it's worth mentioning she has recently walked these comments back). Due to her minimal national profile, this branding by the GOP would be potent as voters form their first impressions, and this could drag the campaign down in the pivotal state of Florida. Lastly, her credentials, though impressive, still fall a little short of other contenders.

6. Tammy Duckworth

@Vogue/Annie Leibovitz

Tammy Duckworth is the junior Senator from Illinois and a woman of firsts. She is the first female double amputee in the Senate, the first Thai American elected to Congress, and the first Senator to give birth while in office. She has an awe-inspiring life story, losing both her legs (and nearly her life) during a combat mission in Iraq that led to her rise in politics. Proponents suggest her background as a war hero would be a refreshing juxtaposition to "Cadet Bone Spurs" and that she comes with the appropriate VP credentials as a midwestern Senator. However, some worry that despite her record as a trailblazer, she is still not well-known on the national scene. And while she has heroically shattered barrier after barrier, it is uncertain if America would be able to overcome its institutionalized ableism, racism, and sexism to embrace her history-making candidacy.

@Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call via AP file

5. Tammy Baldwin

After representing Wisconsin in the House for 14 years, Tammy Baldwin moved to the Senate in 2013. Baldwin has a record of making LGBT history, becoming the first openly gay person elected to a first-term in Congress, before becoming the first openly gay Senator, as well as the first woman Senator from Wisconsin. As Vice President, she would continue making history as the first openly gay person on a presidential ticket. She also has a progressive record as a legislator that could help unite the party. Her strongest selling point, though, is as a Wisconsonite. As the tipping-point state in 2016, Wisconsin could easily be the single most important state in 2020. In 2018, she posted a convincing win, running ahead of Tony Evers in the Governor's race by 10 points, suggesting that she performs better in the state than the average Democrat (an important metric that could support the home state advantage theory). However, her selection would result in a special election for a Senate seat that Democrats would otherwise hold until 2024, jeopardizing Democrats' chances for Senate majority (which I write about here). Choosing Baldwin would be the ultimate risk-averse approach for Biden's presidential campaign, but would he be willing to wager control of the Senate? Probably not.

@AP Photo/Craig Fritz

4. Michelle Lujan Grisham

Have served a term as Secretary of Health of New Mexico and three terms in Congress, Governor of New Mexico Michelle Lujan Grisham has a résumé that's hard to beat. She has also been lauded for one of the most impressive COVID responses in the country. As the only Latina on Biden's list and the only Latina Democratic Governor ever elected in the U.S., she could help shore up Hispanic support that will be key to winning this election—a group with which Biden has been performing rather poorly in the polls. However, similar to the other executives on this list, unforeseen difficulties in her home state could prove to be campaign liabilities. She is also relatively untested and poorly known on the national scene. Although her candidacy has been low-profile, she is undoubtedly a strong contender.

@Getty Images/Mike Theiler—Pool

3. Susan Rice

Susan Rice is the only contender on this list who has never held elected office. Instead, she made her name as a Washington policy wonk. She has served as ambassador to the UN and as National Security Advisor, working in the Obama-Biden administration for the full eight years of Obama's tenure. She is a credentialed Black woman amid growing demands for Biden to choose a Black VP. Her impressive background is clear when she talks to the press—she exudes competence like few others. Biden also seems to have a closer relationship with Rice than any other contender from their time in the White House together. Her selection would carry the familiar waft of Obama era politics, allowing the campaign to capitalize on a nostalgia for the past. 

While Rice has the strongest foreign policy experience of any woman in America save for Hillary Clinton, these qualities may not speak to a country plagued by domestic concerns during an economic recession and pandemic. She also has a plethora of baggage from her time in the State Department that could invoke a right-wing firestorm. Further, it is hard to ignore that running for Vice President would be her first election campaign ever—although she is decently known on the national stage and at the very least is accustomed to the rigor of others' national campaigns. Picking Rice would likely be the most comfortable choice for Biden, but it might not be the smartest electoral strategy.

@AP Photo/Sait Serkan Gurbuz

2. Kamala Harris

Former Attorney General and current Senator from California, Kamala Harris is a compelling VP choice. As the only Black woman Senator—there are no Black woman Governors—she is the only Black woman in the country to have the traditional experience of a Vice President. At a time when demands for Biden to pick a Black woman are as great as ever (though the motives vary) she would be well-poised to rise to the occasion. She has successfully run three statewide campaigns in the largest state in the country, and as one of only two contenders to have run a presidential campaign, she is well-known and well-vetted on the national scene. 

Senator Harris' candidacy poses some concerns as well. Although her experience as top cop of the second biggest Justice Department in the country could be a good match for the Trump campaign's law and order messaging, she has a controversial record. Her selection could rankle folks on the left during the largest anti-police movement in history. While her votes on major bills align well with Biden's politics, Democrats are worried about the dangers of a divided party if Biden's VP fails to excite the left's progressive wing. 

Some point to her widely hyped, and unexpectedly short, presidential bid as a sign that she simply isn't the best campaigner—others might argue the country wasn't ready for a woman of color to lead the ticket after the scars of 2016. Some suggest that Harris' notorious attack on Biden during the June Democratic primary debates is disqualifying, but I believe other factors will prevail over bruised egos in the campaign's decision-making. Senator Harris may not have a lock on the VP spot, but she is nonetheless in a strong position.

1. Elizabeth Warren

@The New York Times/Demetrius Freeman

Leading the list is none other than Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who rose to national prominence during the 2000s bankruptcy wars and clashes with the Obama administration as she built the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Despite these feuds, Biden and Warren have developed a deep mutual respect for one another. In fact, when Biden mulled over a 2016 presidential bid, he asked Warren if she would be his number two. Now in his 2020 campaign, he has leaned heavily on Warren's ideas, endorsing Warren's bankruptcy reform plan, crediting her for crafting his plan for the economy, and realeasing an agenda on women that bears striking similarities to Warren's ideas. Her January release of a plan for handling COVID speaks to the credibility of her reputation as the woman with a plan who Biden has grown to trust—a reassuring brand during a global health crisis and economic collapse.

One of two VP contenders vetted by the pressures of a presidential campaign, Senator Warren was the highest performing woman in the Democratic primary. Strategists claim she could unite the party by shoring up support among the Hispanic and young voters who broke for Bernie Sanders at the end of the primary race. Although VP polls are generally just a barometer for name recognition, a closer look indeed shows Warren performing especially well with independents and those skeptical of Biden. 

There are a number of half-baked concerns about Warren's candidacy. Some worry that nominating Warren would result in Democrats losing a Senate seat because of Massachusetts' Republican Governor's authority to appoint her replacement. A post by Al Giordano breaks down how a supermajority in the Massachusetts General Court could prevent that from happening. Others worry that Warren's leftist policies would alienate voters in the middle, but it seems clear that Trump's message on Biden being a puppet for a socialist insurrection would look the same no matter who the VP is. Finally, concerns about her age are baseless, given that she is in excellent health, she is younger than both of the men leading a ticket, and if anything, her ideas represent generational change better than any other contender.

Nonetheless, there are also legitimate concerns about Warren's candidacy. Some argue her history of claiming Native American ancestry is incompatible with an emerging understanding of representation in politics, and would serve as fodder for Trump and the GOP base. She has, however, gone to incredible lengths to atone for this and bring justice to tribal communities. Lastly, despite her popularity among Black voters, there is a worry that her candidacy would fail to elevate Black voter turnout. 

Every candidate has her baggage, but I maintain that Warren is the strongest option to be Joe Biden's Vice President.