Congressional Races I'm Watching in the Massachusetts Primary

The Commonwealth of Massachusetts labeled with its nine Congressional districts @U.S. Department of the Interior

In the second most Democratic-leaning state in the country, general elections for federal office usually follow a simple formula: the Democrat wins. There have been exceptions (in 2010, Republican Scott Brown notoriously won a Senate special election), but the pattern holds. Today, Massachusetts is the largest single-party congressional delegation in the country, with nine Democrats in the House and two in the Senate. Primary elections are high stakes as candidates compete for safe seats and the opportunity for a long tenure—although seats might not be as safe as they once were. Intra-party struggles have become common in the Bay State as progressives vie for increased representation and newcomers angle for a seat at the table. Below I discuss the three races to watch ahead of the September 1 primaries.

Massachusetts' 1st Congressional District

Congressman Richard Neal and Mayor Alex Morse pictured together at the Holyoke Elks Lodge in 2012 @The Berkshire Edge/Michael Gordon

In Massachusetts' 1st, 71 year-old, 16-term incumbent Richard Neal is being challenged from his left by 31 year-old Holyoke Mayor, Alex Morse. 

Folks on the left criticize Neal for being beholden to special interests and failing to support a Green New Deal and Medicare for All. As the chairperson of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, Neal losing would be a powerful rebuke to the party establishment. Invigorated by Justice Democrats' primary wins in Illinois, New York, and Missouri, and fellow Massachusetts Democrat Ayanna Pressley's famous win in 2018, the left is hoping that Morse will be the next in a string of progressive upsets.  

Neal's campaign in turn contends that Morse mismanaged the Holyoke school system, and more recently, the challenger has fallen under fire for allegations of sexual misconduct with college students. 

Three chapters of college Democrat groups accuse Morse of abusing his power as a mayor and former adjunct professor by pursuing sexual relationships with college students. Morse, a gay man, and his supporters argue that the allegations are vague and unsourced, and that they are rooted in homophobic stereotypes of gay men being sexual predators. Further reporting suggests that some of these accusations were born out of a political hit job by students who sought work with Neal, while Neal's campaign claims no involvement. The issue will almost certainly be discussed when the two debate on Monday. Nonetheless, this story threatens to torpedo Morse's candidacy as details emerge. 

Morse indeed is trailing across a number of indicators. An internal poll conducted by Morse's campaign showed him down by 10 points—perhaps even more if you consider that internals are usually heavily biased in the sponsor's favor. Neal is also entering the home stretch with a 13:1 cash-on-hand advantage. The landscape of the race is changing rapidly, but for now, it remains in the incumbent's favor.

Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District

Pictured from left to right: Jesse Mermell, Jake Auchincloss, Ihssane Leckey, Becky Grossman, David Cavell, and Alan Khazei @The Boston Globe/Pat Greenhouse

Incumbent Joe Kennedy III's announcement to run for Senate has created a mad dash to take over his seat in this comfortably blue district. Twelve Democrats altogether have declared their candidacies, but four have already dropped out. I list the five most competitive candidates and their notable endorsements below:

• Alan Khazei, 2010 candidate for Senate and CEO of City Year. Endorsed by Senator Michael Bennet, Congressman Jamie Raskin, and Susan Rice.
• Becky Grossman, Newton City Councilor. Endorsed by Congressman Ro Khanna, MA State Senate Majority Leader Cynthia Creem, and Julian Castro.
• Ihssane Leckey, former Wall Street regulator. Endorsed by Congresswoman Ilhan Omar.
• Jake Auchincloss, Newton City councilor, veteran, and former Republican political organizer. Endorsed by The Boston Globe and VoteVets.
• Jesse Mermell, former advisor to Deval Patrick and Brookline Select Board Member. Endorsed by Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley, MA Attorney General Maura Healey, and former contender David Cavell.

Attorney Ben Sigel, tech entrepreneur Chris Zannetos, and professor Natalia Linos are also competing, but trail in polling, fundraising, and endorsements, so it is unlikely they will be able to build the necessary momentum to win this crowded race in the next two weeks.

The race has boiled down to Jake Auchincloss versus everyone else—and not because he has a runaway lead. A former Republican, Auchincloss is the most moderate candidate on the ballot. He is the only major contender whose website doesn't embrace a Green New Deal or Medicare for All, for example. 

Meanwhile, the other four are competing for the mantle of the progressive lane. This dilemma is visible in the division of party endorsements. The vice chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is supporting Khazei, a Bernie Sanders campaign chair and an Elizabeth Warren surrogate support Grossman, and Squad members have split their support between Leckey and Mermell.

In this fight between factions, Auchincloss has caught a lot of heat. He has been criticized for receiving super PAC money from his wealthy parents and the fossil fuel industry, previously supporting displays of the Confederate flag by comparing it to a Pride flag, making a sexist retort about competitor Jesse Mermell's professional career, and posting Islamophobic content on Facebook during college. However, because Auchincloss has the moderate lane to himself and a divided field to his left, the progressives are worried that he could coast to victory despite all of his controversies. 

Although the left has yet to fully consolidate behind a candidate, the race is narrowing.  Allegations of staff mistreatment levied against Leckey and concerns of her campaign being mostly self-funded could spell trouble for her. Alan Khazei, for all his big-name support and big-dollar fundraisers, has not shown any signs of building momentum with voters. David Cavell withdrew from the race this week to throw his support behind Jesse Mermell, and he was promptly followed by other high-profile Massachusetts leaders. Meanwhile, Becky Grossman has her fair share of support from the party's left-wing and has polled well thus far.

Entering the home stretch, the race is tight. Auchincloss leads on fundraising with $1.17 million cash-on-hand. Khazei is close with $1.15 million, while Leckey, Mermell, and Grossman trail, at $726k, $447k and $417k respectively. A poll released by Leckey's campaign showed Grossman leading the race with just 19%, and Auchincloss not far behind at 16%. Importantly, 25% of voters had yet to make up their minds.

This upcoming week of campaigning will be critical as early voting begins on August 22 and mail-in voting is well underway. The race still has a large amount of undecideds and crowded primaries can swing very quickly, but for now the odds favor Becky Grossman and Jesse Mermell. The steady consolidation of support on the party's left doesn't bode well for Auchincloss in the face of his controversies. Grossman has polled well thus far and Mermell has been rapidly picking up steam. At the end of the day, anything could happen, but it would be surprising if neither of these women won the race.

Massachusetts' U.S. Senate Election

Congressman Joe Kennedy III is challenging Senator Ed Markey for a seat in the Senate. @AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

The Massachusetts Senate race is a battle between titans. Senator Ed Markey is running for a 2nd term, and the 74 year-old served for 36 years in the House of Representatives before joining the Senate. Joe Kennedy III, four-term congressman and 39 year-old grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, is an heir to the greatest American political dynasty in history. 

This race has been broadly characterized as a battle between the moderate and progressive wings of the party, but it has a fair share of idiosyncrasies that such a picture fails to capture. Usually in these faction clashes, a moderate incumbent is challenged from his left. Instead, it's Markey who carries the mandate of progressives. The challenger is usually a younger woman and/or person of color who is considered an "outsider" to the political establishment, but Joe Kennedy III is nothing if not a consummate insider. Kennedy doesn't fit the mold of a moderate either. In fact, many argue that the two men would have nearly identical voting records in the Senate. Instead of a battle of ideology, this race is a contest between political brands and a look at what “generational change” really means.

The timing of the race is notable. Kennedy's bid has created a contest in what was otherwise a safe seat for Democrats during a presidential election year. It's probable that Kennedy saw what was coming for him in his rearview mirror if he waited for Massachusetts' septuagenarian senators to leave their posts. In an open race, Kennedy would have to compete against Massachusetts' deep bench of Democratic leaders, including people like progressive icon Ayanna Pressley and moderate insurgent Seth Moulton. He must have seen challenging Ed Markey, with his low national profile, as his best chance for getting a seat in the Senate.

Joe Kennedy has a shorter political career than Markey, whose has spent more time in elected office than Kennedy has been alive. In his eight years as representative, Kennedy has made a name for himself as an advocate for LGBT+ rights. He has served as a leader on a Congressional task force for protecting transgender rights, spearheaded legislation to protect LGBT+ folk from religious freedoms discrimination, and has hosted events in support of LGBT+ asylum seekers. Kennedy's strongest asset, though, is his last name. Some Democratic strategists argue that if his middle name, Moore, were his last name, his "candidacy would be a joke." 

Detractors argue that Kennedy's motivations are opportunistic and he is a progressive-in name-only. They suggest he should have waited his turn instead of diverting time and funds to a Senate race that should be an afterthought during a presidential election year. Nonetheless, Kennedy has some big names backing his bid, including Senator Kyrsten Sinema and Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chair Joaquin Castro.

Throughout Senator Markey's long career, he has maintained a progressive record in Congress. He made his name in the progressive community as a co-author of the Green New Deal with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. However, he has still come under fire for a handful of past votes. Notably, he voted in favor of the Iraq War in 2004, and in 2013 sided with House Republicans in providing funding for immigration detention center beds.

Long regarded as a head-down and do-the-work politician, Markey has also been criticized by Kennedy for not using the bully pulpit of his post to nudge public opinion on key progressive issues. However, this race has boosted his national profile and rallied the progressive left to his side. He has the support of a number of Massachusetts state leaders, as well as firebrands Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

As September 1 approaches, the race is looking tight. Markey and Kennedy have nearly identical cash-on-hand reserves at about $4.8 million a piece. At the onset of the race, it seemed as though Kennedy's last name would carry him to a smooth victory, but as Markey has become better known, the race has shifted. Kennedy led by 16 points in a poll in May, but a poll from just one week ago showed Markey leading by 15. Primaries have a tendency to shift rapidly, but going into the home stretch, Markey is in a strong position to hold onto his seat.