The Electoral Strategy of Choosing Kamala Harris

Former rival Kamala Harris has joined Joe Biden's presidential ticket @The Chronicle/Scott Strazzante

Joe Biden made the historic announcement yesterday that his running mate will be California Senator Kamala Harris. Before serving as senator, Harris served as both the District Attorney of San Francisco and Attorney General of California. She is the first Black person, first Asian person, third woman, and, interestingly, the first Democrat from west of Texas to ever serve as a running mate on a presidential ticket. 

While Senator Harris' candidacy is certainly groundbreaking, it is hardly a surprise—she has long been considered a frontrunner throughout the process. As the only Black woman senator in the country (there are no Black woman governors), she was the only Black woman with traditional vice president credentials amid growing demands for a Black woman to serve on the ticket. As a former contender for the presidential nomination, she is well-known and vetted on the national scene.

Her selection comes as a definitive rebuke to the Democratic party's left, who advocated for stalwart progressives Elizabeth Warren and Karen Bass. Yet, Harris is not easily defined as a moderate. Instead, she toes the faction lines of the Democratic party. Once a co-signer of Bernie Sanders' Medicare-for-All proposal, Harris pivoted in her presidential campaign to supporting a healthcare plan that accommodated private insurance and followed a slower roll-out. Her legislative vote history places her solidly in the leftmost echelons of the party, but progressive detractors denounce her presidential campaign platform, record as a prosecutor, and hesitance to lead on key progressive issues. 

Senator Harris' mixed branding has obfuscated the Trump campaign's messaging. At once, she is both a radical liberal and a "phony" moderate in sheep's clothing. She is an anti-cop, soft-on-crime leftist, yet an overzealous and excessively punitive prosecutor. Perhaps, this is why the Biden team avoided choosing a running mate like Warren, who some think would be easier to sell as a toxic socialist. Regardless, Trump is again leaning on the Obama/Clinton playbook of racist and sexist dog whistling, calling her a phony, a liar, nasty, and disrespectful to men.

Some point to Kamala Harris' widely hyped and unexpectedly short presidential bid as a sign that she is a weak campaigner. In the presidential primary, Senator Harris failed to break-up Joe Biden's monopoly on Black voters, Elizabeth Warren's on college-educated White voters or Bernie Sanders' on young voters. Others argue, in a cycle dominated by electability concerns and the scars of 2016, a woman of color never had a real chance. In any case, Joe Biden himself ran failing presidential campaigns in 1988 and 2008 and is now the Democratic presidential nominee. Previous campaigns are not always indicative of future potential.

Notably, her campaign failed to make clear who her core supporters are. Instead, she relied on a broad base of older, educated, and female voters. Recent polling also suggests that she is particularly well-liked among Biden voters. 

The theory here seems to be that rather than expand the base for a candidate who has consistently led in the polls by 8+ points, Harris could boost turnout by reinforcing support among the constituencies with which Biden already does well—namely, Black voters and moderates—without sacrificing support on the left. However, the unprecedented nature of her candidacy makes it hard to predict what will actually happen. We know that in 2008 and 2012, Black voter turnout was higher with a Black man at the head of the ticket. But that's hardly enough data to make sweeping claims about the effects of a Black candidate leading the ticket, let alone when a Black candidate is in the #2 slot. 

At the end of the day, the electoral effects of Senator Harris will depend largely on the way the media covers her. The emphasis on the symbolic significance of her candidacy presents a strong case for boosting Black voter turnout. On the other hand, messaging from the Trump campaign could dispirit voters on the left or scare away voters in the middle; or maybe even rally both groups in opposition. One thing for sure, is that Kamala Harris will be a focus in this campaign unlike any other running mate before her—except perhaps Geraldine Ferraro or Sarah Palin. Under normal circumstances, women face higher levels of scrutiny than men in politics. Considering Joe Biden's age and his enthusiasm problem, the pressure on Senator Harris will be twofold. We already saw some of these dynamics play out during Biden's vetting process. 

Kamala Harris has already proven herself to be a competent politician. Now, we will see if America is ready to embrace her history-making candidacy.