The Electoral Strategy of Choosing Kamala Harris

Former rival Kamala Harris has joined Joe Biden's presidential ticket @The Chronicle/Scott Strazzante

Joe Biden made the historic announcement yesterday that his running mate will be California Senator Kamala Harris. Before serving as senator, Harris served as both the District Attorney of San Francisco and Attorney General of California. She is the first Black person, first Asian person, third woman, and, interestingly, the first Democrat from west of Texas to ever serve as a running mate on a presidential ticket. 

While Senator Harris' candidacy is certainly groundbreaking, it is hardly a surprise—she has long been considered a frontrunner throughout the process. As the only Black woman senator in the country (there are no Black woman governors), she was the only Black woman with traditional vice president credentials amid growing demands for a Black woman to serve on the ticket. As a former contender for the presidential nomination, she is well-known and vetted on the national scene.

Her selection comes as a definitive rebuke to the Democratic party's left, who advocated for stalwart progressives Elizabeth Warren and Karen Bass. Yet, Harris is not easily defined as a moderate. Instead, she toes the faction lines of the Democratic party. Once a co-signer of Bernie Sanders' Medicare-for-All proposal, Harris pivoted in her presidential campaign to supporting a healthcare plan that accommodated private insurance and followed a slower roll-out. Her legislative vote history places her solidly in the leftmost echelons of the party, but progressive detractors denounce her presidential campaign platform, record as a prosecutor, and hesitance to lead on key progressive issues. 

Senator Harris' mixed branding has obfuscated the Trump campaign's messaging. At once, she is both a radical liberal and a "phony" moderate in sheep's clothing. She is an anti-cop, soft-on-crime leftist, yet an overzealous and excessively punitive prosecutor. Perhaps, this is why the Biden team avoided choosing a running mate like Warren, who some think would be easier to sell as a toxic socialist. Regardless, Trump is again leaning on the Obama/Clinton playbook of racist and sexist dog whistling, calling her a phony, a liar, nasty, and disrespectful to men.

Some point to Kamala Harris' widely hyped and unexpectedly short presidential bid as a sign that she is a weak campaigner. In the presidential primary, Senator Harris failed to break-up Joe Biden's monopoly on Black voters, Elizabeth Warren's on college-educated White voters or Bernie Sanders' on young voters. Others argue, in a cycle dominated by electability concerns and the scars of 2016, a woman of color never had a real chance. In any case, Joe Biden himself ran failing presidential campaigns in 1988 and 2008 and is now the Democratic presidential nominee. Previous campaigns are not always indicative of future potential.

Notably, her campaign failed to make clear who her core supporters are. Instead, she relied on a broad base of older, educated, and female voters. Recent polling also suggests that she is particularly well-liked among Biden voters. 

The theory here seems to be that rather than expand the base for a candidate who has consistently led in the polls by 8+ points, Harris could boost turnout by reinforcing support among the constituencies with which Biden already does well—namely, Black voters and moderates—without sacrificing support on the left. However, the unprecedented nature of her candidacy makes it hard to predict what will actually happen. We know that in 2008 and 2012, Black voter turnout was higher with a Black man at the head of the ticket. But that's hardly enough data to make sweeping claims about the effects of a Black candidate leading the ticket, let alone when a Black candidate is in the #2 slot. 

At the end of the day, the electoral effects of Senator Harris will depend largely on the way the media covers her. The emphasis on the symbolic significance of her candidacy presents a strong case for boosting Black voter turnout. On the other hand, messaging from the Trump campaign could dispirit voters on the left or scare away voters in the middle; or maybe even rally both groups in opposition. One thing for sure, is that Kamala Harris will be a focus in this campaign unlike any other running mate before her—except perhaps Geraldine Ferraro or Sarah Palin. Under normal circumstances, women face higher levels of scrutiny than men in politics. Considering Joe Biden's age and his enthusiasm problem, the pressure on Senator Harris will be twofold. We already saw some of these dynamics play out during Biden's vetting process. 

Kamala Harris has already proven herself to be a competent politician. Now, we will see if America is ready to embrace her history-making candidacy.

Podcast: The Search for Joe Biden's VP

I'm excited to share the first-ever politerati podcast! The premiere episode features my good friend, Elaine Welteroth protégé, and Gen Z activist Abigail Cherubin. We tackle Joe Biden's Vice President selection in this episode. We discuss how narrow definitions of experience tend to exclude women and people of color from presidential politics, and consider the names of some women who might not have typical qualifications, but would make great VPs nonetheless. We hope you enjoy, and as always, send me any feedback or suggestions you have for future content.

Veepstakes Overview: Ranking Biden's Vice Presidential Picks

The first woman ever on a major party ticket, Geraldine Ferraro speaks at the Democratic National Convention, San Francisco, 1984 @AP/Rex/Shutterstock

Joe Biden's Vice President announcement could come any day now and the stakes are as high as ever. In an unprecedented move, during the March 15 Democratic primary debate, Biden announced that his VP will be a woman. 

The first time a woman made it onto a major party ticket was in 1984, when Demcorat Walter Mondale, far behind in the polls, chose Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate. Initially getting a major boost in the polls, the campaign soon suffered from intense scrutiny into Ferraro and her husband's finances. They lost in a landslide to Ronald Reagan. It wasn't until 2008 that another woman made it onto a ticket, when Republican John McCain announced Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. They, too, lost in a landslide. 

This year will be the first time that a presidential campaign will add a woman to the ticket not as a Hail Mary, but as a serious consideration of the strength and value a woman can bring to the country as Vice President. The experiences of Geraldine Ferraro, Sarah Palin, and Hillary Clinton have shown us that when women have presidential aspirations, they become the object of hyperintense media scrutiny into their credentials, appearance, and families. Because the evidence for sexism in presidential politics is clear, I won't pontificate beyond the notion that this VP pick is unlike any other this country has ever seen, and Biden's campaign deliberations will be reflective of this.

Below, I rank the women Biden is considering for VP by likelihood of their selection. I tried considering factors that the Biden campaign has made clear are important, like being "simpatico" and "ready on day one," as well as traditionally important qualities in a VP, like having campaign experience, boosting the ticket in battleground states, unifying the party, and complementing the President's perceived weak-points. On the other hand, I tried to avoid feeding too heavily into candidate-of-the-week punditry and tea leaf reading. Now, without further ado:

@AP Photo/David Goldman

13. Gina Raimondo

The tail end of the list is carried by two-term Governor of Rhode Island, Gina Raimondo. Re-elected by a wide margin in 2018, Raimondo was broadly unpopular in her second term until coronavirus happened, and she was lauded for her state's response. She is a centrist democrat (she supported Bloomberg's presidential bid) so she likely agrees with or is to the right of Biden on most issues, and at 49, she would bring some youth to the ticket. However, one has to wonder what a moderate White woman with minimal national profile from a comfortably blue state brings to the ticket that Biden doesn't already. If the case couldn't be made for Klobuchar, it's hard to see Raimondo faring any better.

@AP/Jim Cole

12. Maggie Hassan

Though low on this list, New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan arguably has one of the most impressive résumés here. Former Governor of New Hampshire, she is one of only two women in the country (the other being her fellow New Hampshire Senator, Jeanne Shaheen), to ever serve as both a Governor and a Senator. Also, although New Hampshire is only worth four electoral votes, it is nonetheless a battleground state. However, given that Clinton won New Hampshire in 2016, if Democrats are struggling there in 2020, then the race is likely already lost. Additionally, it is unclear what Senator Hassan's personal relationship is like with Biden, and though she is confirmed to have been invited to the vetting process, the lack of reporting on her candidacy suggests she has not progressed very far. Unfortunately, among a pool of talented and crendentialed women, a strong résumé isn't enough.

11. Stacey Abrams

@AP/Butch Dill

Stacey Abrams rose to national prominence during the 2018 Georgia Governor's race, which she narrowly lost by 2 points amid widespread allegations of voter suppression. Prior to this, her highest ranking position was minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives. Abrams hopefuls and Abrams alike suggest that she would be able to boost Black voter turnout, especially in the battleground state of Georgia. Additionally, though VP polls are basically just a measure of how well-known candidates are, Abrams has performed well in some in spite of her relatively low national profie. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that Biden selects someone whose highest elected position was State Representative. Back in June, despite reporting to the contrary, Abrams said in an interview with Stephen Colbert that the Biden campaign had yet to contact her

@USA TODAY, Wochit

10. Keisha Lance Bottoms

Keisha Lance Bottoms is the current mayor of Atlanta, Georgia and a longtime Biden supporter. She endorsed him in June 2019 after Harris' offensive on Biden's record with segregationist Senators. Jim Clyburn, whose endorsement was critical in delivering Biden the nomination, reportedly first suggested Bottoms to Biden's vetting team. A VP Bottoms could boost turnout in the Atlanta-area to help the ticket in Georgia, and her nomination would be seen as reaffirming his support to the African American community that was so pivotal in making him the nominee. However, it would be quite the leap from Mayor of the 37th largest city in the country to first in line for President of the U.S. And while additional turnout in Georgia would be nice thanks to its Senate races, winning there would likely just be icing on the cake for the presidential election. It is more likely that Biden has floated Bottoms' name to boost her national profile as a thanks for her continued support.

@AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

9. Val Demings

Val Demings was first elected to Florida's 10th congressional district in 2016, and before that she served as the first female police chief of the Orlando Police Department. Demings supporters suggest that as a VP she would boost Black voter turnout, she could deliver the key swing state of Florida to Democrats, and it would be difficult for Trump to slander a cop. However, she is poorly known outside of her district so she likely wouldn't boost the ticket much, if at all, in Florida. During her tenure as Orlando police chief, she came under fire for allegations of excessive-force, and there is no doubt this would be the focus of intense scrutiny if she were VP.  Finally, she lacks the Senate and governing experience many of her competitors have, which doesn't bode well on the "ready on day one" front. Her candidacy comes with many risks, but without a compelling "why" for her to secure the spot over others.

@AP/Michigan Office of the Governor

8. Gretchen Whitmer

Gretchen Whitmer was elected Governor of Michigan in the 2018 midterms by an impressive 10 point margin. She rose to national attention when Trump referred to her as "that woman from Michigan" as she handled her state's COVID response, for which she has received high marks. Considering that Michigan is likely a must-win Trump state for the Biden team this November, a Whitmer boost could be game-changing. However, ripping a Governor away from her post in the middle of a pandemic isn't great optics. Anything that goes wrong in her state while she's campaigning could prove to be a major liability, as she would be seen to be responsible in a way that someone like a Senator would not. Moreover, while it feels like a lifetime since the 2018 midterms, Whitmer has only been in office for less than two years. She is still relatively under-experienced compared to some women on this list.

@The New York Time/Erin Schaff

7. Karen Bass

In 2008, Karen Bass became the first Black woman to serve as Speaker of a state legislative body when she was elected Speaker of the California State Assembly, and the five-term California Congresswoman currently serves as Chair of the powerful Congressional Black Caucus. Bass proponents suggest she could appeal to leftists while remaining respected by centrists, her lowkey persona would mesh well with Biden's basement campaign, and as a Black woman she could effectively rise up to the cultural moment. However, statements Bass made praising Fidel Castro after the Cuban dictator's death won't play well with South Florida Cubans when it inevitably ends up in a GOP ad (it's worth mentioning she has recently walked these comments back). Due to her minimal national profile, this branding by the GOP would be potent as voters form their first impressions, and this could drag the campaign down in the pivotal state of Florida. Lastly, her credentials, though impressive, still fall a little short of other contenders.

6. Tammy Duckworth

@Vogue/Annie Leibovitz

Tammy Duckworth is the junior Senator from Illinois and a woman of firsts. She is the first female double amputee in the Senate, the first Thai American elected to Congress, and the first Senator to give birth while in office. She has an awe-inspiring life story, losing both her legs (and nearly her life) during a combat mission in Iraq that led to her rise in politics. Proponents suggest her background as a war hero would be a refreshing juxtaposition to "Cadet Bone Spurs" and that she comes with the appropriate VP credentials as a midwestern Senator. However, some worry that despite her record as a trailblazer, she is still not well-known on the national scene. And while she has heroically shattered barrier after barrier, it is uncertain if America would be able to overcome its institutionalized ableism, racism, and sexism to embrace her history-making candidacy.

@Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call via AP file

5. Tammy Baldwin

After representing Wisconsin in the House for 14 years, Tammy Baldwin moved to the Senate in 2013. Baldwin has a record of making LGBT history, becoming the first openly gay person elected to a first-term in Congress, before becoming the first openly gay Senator, as well as the first woman Senator from Wisconsin. As Vice President, she would continue making history as the first openly gay person on a presidential ticket. She also has a progressive record as a legislator that could help unite the party. Her strongest selling point, though, is as a Wisconsonite. As the tipping-point state in 2016, Wisconsin could easily be the single most important state in 2020. In 2018, she posted a convincing win, running ahead of Tony Evers in the Governor's race by 10 points, suggesting that she performs better in the state than the average Democrat (an important metric that could support the home state advantage theory). However, her selection would result in a special election for a Senate seat that Democrats would otherwise hold until 2024, jeopardizing Democrats' chances for Senate majority (which I write about here). Choosing Baldwin would be the ultimate risk-averse approach for Biden's presidential campaign, but would he be willing to wager control of the Senate? Probably not.

@AP Photo/Craig Fritz

4. Michelle Lujan Grisham

Have served a term as Secretary of Health of New Mexico and three terms in Congress, Governor of New Mexico Michelle Lujan Grisham has a résumé that's hard to beat. She has also been lauded for one of the most impressive COVID responses in the country. As the only Latina on Biden's list and the only Latina Democratic Governor ever elected in the U.S., she could help shore up Hispanic support that will be key to winning this election—a group with which Biden has been performing rather poorly in the polls. However, similar to the other executives on this list, unforeseen difficulties in her home state could prove to be campaign liabilities. She is also relatively untested and poorly known on the national scene. Although her candidacy has been low-profile, she is undoubtedly a strong contender.

@Getty Images/Mike Theiler—Pool

3. Susan Rice

Susan Rice is the only contender on this list who has never held elected office. Instead, she made her name as a Washington policy wonk. She has served as ambassador to the UN and as National Security Advisor, working in the Obama-Biden administration for the full eight years of Obama's tenure. She is a credentialed Black woman amid growing demands for Biden to choose a Black VP. Her impressive background is clear when she talks to the press—she exudes competence like few others. Biden also seems to have a closer relationship with Rice than any other contender from their time in the White House together. Her selection would carry the familiar waft of Obama era politics, allowing the campaign to capitalize on a nostalgia for the past. 

While Rice has the strongest foreign policy experience of any woman in America save for Hillary Clinton, these qualities may not speak to a country plagued by domestic concerns during an economic recession and pandemic. She also has a plethora of baggage from her time in the State Department that could invoke a right-wing firestorm. Further, it is hard to ignore that running for Vice President would be her first election campaign ever—although she is decently known on the national stage and at the very least is accustomed to the rigor of others' national campaigns. Picking Rice would likely be the most comfortable choice for Biden, but it might not be the smartest electoral strategy.

@AP Photo/Sait Serkan Gurbuz

2. Kamala Harris

Former Attorney General and current Senator from California, Kamala Harris is a compelling VP choice. As the only Black woman Senator—there are no Black woman Governors—she is the only Black woman in the country to have the traditional experience of a Vice President. At a time when demands for Biden to pick a Black woman are as great as ever (though the motives vary) she would be well-poised to rise to the occasion. She has successfully run three statewide campaigns in the largest state in the country, and as one of only two contenders to have run a presidential campaign, she is well-known and well-vetted on the national scene. 

Senator Harris' candidacy poses some concerns as well. Although her experience as top cop of the second biggest Justice Department in the country could be a good match for the Trump campaign's law and order messaging, she has a controversial record. Her selection could rankle folks on the left during the largest anti-police movement in history. While her votes on major bills align well with Biden's politics, Democrats are worried about the dangers of a divided party if Biden's VP fails to excite the left's progressive wing. 

Some point to her widely hyped, and unexpectedly short, presidential bid as a sign that she simply isn't the best campaigner—others might argue the country wasn't ready for a woman of color to lead the ticket after the scars of 2016. Some suggest that Harris' notorious attack on Biden during the June Democratic primary debates is disqualifying, but I believe other factors will prevail over bruised egos in the campaign's decision-making. Senator Harris may not have a lock on the VP spot, but she is nonetheless in a strong position.

1. Elizabeth Warren

@The New York Times/Demetrius Freeman

Leading the list is none other than Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who rose to national prominence during the 2000s bankruptcy wars and clashes with the Obama administration as she built the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Despite these feuds, Biden and Warren have developed a deep mutual respect for one another. In fact, when Biden mulled over a 2016 presidential bid, he asked Warren if she would be his number two. Now in his 2020 campaign, he has leaned heavily on Warren's ideas, endorsing Warren's bankruptcy reform plan, crediting her for crafting his plan for the economy, and realeasing an agenda on women that bears striking similarities to Warren's ideas. Her January release of a plan for handling COVID speaks to the credibility of her reputation as the woman with a plan who Biden has grown to trust—a reassuring brand during a global health crisis and economic collapse.

One of two VP contenders vetted by the pressures of a presidential campaign, Senator Warren was the highest performing woman in the Democratic primary. Strategists claim she could unite the party by shoring up support among the Hispanic and young voters who broke for Bernie Sanders at the end of the primary race. Although VP polls are generally just a barometer for name recognition, a closer look indeed shows Warren performing especially well with independents and those skeptical of Biden. 

There are a number of half-baked concerns about Warren's candidacy. Some worry that nominating Warren would result in Democrats losing a Senate seat because of Massachusetts' Republican Governor's authority to appoint her replacement. A post by Al Giordano breaks down how a supermajority in the Massachusetts General Court could prevent that from happening. Others worry that Warren's leftist policies would alienate voters in the middle, but it seems clear that Trump's message on Biden being a puppet for a socialist insurrection would look the same no matter who the VP is. Finally, concerns about her age are baseless, given that she is in excellent health, she is younger than both of the men leading a ticket, and if anything, her ideas represent generational change better than any other contender.

Nonetheless, there are also legitimate concerns about Warren's candidacy. Some argue her history of claiming Native American ancestry is incompatible with an emerging understanding of representation in politics, and would serve as fodder for Trump and the GOP base. She has, however, gone to incredible lengths to atone for this and bring justice to tribal communities. Lastly, despite her popularity among Black voters, there is a worry that her candidacy would fail to elevate Black voter turnout. 

Every candidate has her baggage, but I maintain that Warren is the strongest option to be Joe Biden's Vice President. 

Overview of the 2020 Senate Races and Ranking Democrats' Odds

Image from @cnn

In 2020, everything is up for grabs, including the Senate. Currently, the GOP caucus holds a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats will need to net at least 4 seats or 3 seats and the vice presidency to regain majority control. Control of the Senate will be key for an array of issues, including approving the president's appointments to the courts and cabinet and passing policy. On the surface, it may seem as though Democrats face an uphill battle as they defend seats in deep-red Alabama and the notorious battleground of Michigan, but thanks to an otherwise favorable Senate map and a persistent D+8 lead in the generic congressional ballot, Democrats have a real chance to win back control of the chamber for the first time since the 2014 red wave in which the GOP netted a whopping 9 seats. Below, I rank Democrats' odds in the 14 most competitive Senate races, considering factors like candidate fundraising, polling, state elasticity, and state history of split-ticket voting.

14. Kentucky, battle of the Mc's
Republican incumbent - Likely R hold

Kentucky is the home of GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Running against him is former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, the first woman to fly a combat mission for the Marine Corps. She was widely hyped in her 2018 race against Andy Barr in Kentucky's 6th, but ultimately fell short by 3.2 points. Nonetheless, upon entering the 2020 Senate race, she was able to capitalize on the left's enthusiasm to remove McConell from office. Straight out the gates, McGrath secured the endorsement of the campaign arm of the Senate Democrats, the DSCC, and has raised a whopping $46.9 million, compared to McConell's paltry $36.6 million. However, an unexpectedly tough primary race against progressive insurgent Charles Booker forced McGrath to answer some difficult questions on her record and spend boat loads of precious campaign funds. Now, with a freshly damaged reputation, McGrath reports $16 millon cash-on-hand, the same as McConnell. 

What was once seen as a promising race, bolstered by McConnell's status as the least popular senator in the country, is now a pipe-dream for Democrats, as they grapple with the reality that Trump is still almost certain to win the state by double-digits. As much as Democrats would love to unseat McConnell, the polls paint a different picture.

13. South Carolina, Graham's race to lose
Republican incumbent - Likely R hold

The race in South Carolina is similar to Kentucky in a number of ways. A deep-red state in the South featuring a Republican incumbent that stokes the ire of the left like few others, and a Democratic challenger that has been able to feed off of this frustration to fuel record-breaking fundraising numbers. Republican Lindsey Graham is the face of this race, noted for his transformation from Trump critic (hilariously displayed in this campaign ad) to Trump sycophant. Democrat Jaime Harrison is running a disciplined campaign and has raised an impressive $28.6 million, including $13.9 million in the second quarter alone. Polls even suggest a single-digit race at the top of the ticket, which could provide an opening for Harrison to close the gap and win the race.

However, at the end of the day, 2020 would be the first time South Carolina has voted for a Democrat for president since 1976, when the nation's parties looked quite different than they do today. While Trump's margin might be slimmer than a typical Republican, he is still strongly favored to win in South Carolina. In today's hyper-polarized political climate, the Senate race is likely to follow.

Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Senator up in 2020 | Image from @politico

12. Alabama, the last southern Democrat
Democrat incumbent - Likely R flip

In 2017, Senator Doug Jones did something no one thought possible: he ran as a liberal Democrat in Alabama and won. After Sessions' fateful appointment as U.S. Attorney General, Jones' opponent in the special election was Republican Roy Moore, two-time Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court (and two-time removed), who received a number of accusations regarding sexual misconduct with minors. Some data suggests Moore may even trigger Israeli pedophile detection technology. Record African-American voter turnout, along with many conservative voters opting to stay home or write in names like Alabama's head football coach Nick Saban, propelled Jones to a slim 1.6% margin of victory.

This time, however, Jones is running against a more formidable candidate in the likes of former Auburn head football coach Tommy Tuberville. Tuberville is a milder candidate than Moore or Sessions (whom he recently beat in the Senate GOP primary, busting Sessions' dreams of reclaiming his seat), but still has some controversy. In 1999, he punished a player charged with raping a 15-year-old with a one-game suspension, and has been subject to carpetbagging allegations. Meanwhile, Jones is hoping to make the most of his newfound incumbency and his 15:1 cash on hand advantage to overcome Alabama's partisan lean. Nonetheless, in a state that Trump won by almost 28 points in 2016, Jones faces a steep uphill climb in his efforts to cling onto this Senate seat during a presidential election year.

11. Kansas, going blue or just anti-Trump?
Open race - Likely R hold

Kansas is one of five Trump states that Trump failed to improve on Romney's 2012 margins. Declines in the other 4 states, Georgia, Arizona, Texas, and Utah, can be explained by a trend in GOP losses in the Sun Belt, or, in the case of Utah, a complex political climate heavily influenced by the state's Mormon population. Kansas, on the other hand, stands separate. As one of the most highly educated red states, Kansas is not as friendly a state to Trump as its electoral history might suggest.

Ultimately, Democrats' chances will depend on who the GOP nominates on the August 4 primary. The frontrunner is Rep. Roger Marshall, a relative moderate who his hoping to ride establishment support and dissatisfaction with his opponent, Kris Kobach, to victory. Former Kansas Secretary of State, Kobach is running after a stinging loss to Democrat Laura Kelly in the 2018 governor race. Closely associated with the infamous Brownback administration, and tainted with the ghost of his 2018 defeat, Kobach would be Democrats' best chance of electing a Democrat Senator from Kansas for the first time since 1932. In fact, the single-largest spender in the contest is a Democrat-linked pro-Kobach super PAC. In their hopes to recreate their 2018 electoral success, Democrats are supporting Republican-turned-Democrat state Senator Barbara "first female physician in the Senate" Bollier. For now, the state's partisan lean keeps this race low on Democrats' hit-list.

10. Alaska, Election Twitter's favorite state
Republican incumbent - Lean R hold

Up in Alaska, Independent Dr. Al Gross is challenging Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. Sullivan narrowly ousted Democrat Mark Begich, heir of the Begich political dynasty, in the 2014 wave election. Although Alaska has elected its fair share of Democrats, it remains a relatively Republican-leaning state—which is why Trump's 2016 victory left a lot to be desired. While Trump won by 15 points, he did so with only 51% of the vote—the same percent as in Iowa, a state many would comfortably call a swing state. Considering that 2020 is widely seen as a referendum on Trump, Alaska was the most elastic state in the country in 2018, and Biden's margins in the polls, many have speculated that this race was being overlooked by elections handicappers. Recently, a crowdfunded Election Twitter poll found the Senate race was in fact wide-open and Biden was within the margin of error against Trump. 

Because Gross is still poorly known, it remains to be seen if he will be able to capitalize on the moment, but there is reason for Democrats to be cautiously optimistic. In the meantime, count on Twitter to lend a helping hand to their favorite state.

9. Texas, next cycle, I promise!
Republican incumbent - Lean R hold

Republican John Cornyn has served as Senator from Texas since 2002, and is now running for his fourth term. He's a popular Senator whose style is quite mild-mannered compared to the populism of Ted Cruz, with whom he serves the state of Texas in the Senate. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke's leveraged his charisma and talent on the stump, which often drew comparisons to Obama, and a longstanding distaste among both sides of the aisle for Cruz's style of politics, to draw a close race. O'Rourke's defeat took the wind out of Democrats' sails in Texas, and enthusiasm has been further dampened by primary race drama this cycle. Nowhere is this more evident than the lackluster fundraising on the left this year, paling in comparison to O'Rourke's stunning fundraising numbers in 2018. 

USAF veteran and 2016 Fiorina supporter, MJ Hegar is the Democratic nominee after posting a single-digit win on the July 14 Democratic primary. In her favor is Texas' leftward shift in recent years—21 points since 2004. While Senate race polling has not been promising (perhaps Hegar just needs to become better known), some recent polling has shown Biden leading Trump at the top of the ticket. Given that pollsters largely underestimated Democratic strength in Texas in 2018, there is hope that Biden could carry Texas and Hegar could follow. In the meantime, she will need to boost her fundraising to compete in Texas' expensive media markets and overcome Cornyn's favorability.

8. Montana, Big Split-ticket Country
Republican incumbent - Toss-up

Sixteen years of a Democrat in the Governor's Mansion, a Democrat Senator halfway through his third term, and an incumbent Republican Senator fighting for his political life in 2020. No, this isn't a state of the coastal elite, but Montana, which voted for Donald Trump by 20 points in 2016. In the 2018 midterms, despite losses elsewhere in Trump-won states, Democrat Jon Tester of Montana held onto his Senate seat by nearly 4 points. 

Montana's long history of electing Democrats to statewide office, including legend Max Baucus, while voting red for president, has managed to survive the Trump era. After a brief and disappointing bid for president, popular incumbent Governor Steve Bullock gave into demands to run for Senate against Republican incumbent Steve Daines, immediately clearing the primary field. While Bullock is perhaps the only man in the country that could make this seat competitive during a presidential election year, there are reasons to think that this race won't come easy for him. Firstly, in today's hyper-partisan political climate, split-ticket voting is becoming increasingly rare. In Tester's third race in 2018, despite running in a national environment that was 7-points bluer, he won by the same margin as he did in 2012. Secondly, Bullock is challenging an incumbent, and while incumbency status doesn't mean what it used to, it still helps. In any case, Bullock will be able to rely on his record as governor to level the playing field in what's shaping up to be a nail-biter of a race.

Senator Joni Ernst is facing an unexpectedly difficult reelection campaign | Image from @dscc

7. Iowa, Joni's pissed
Republican incumbent - Toss-up

In perhaps the starkest view of how drastically the state of the presidential election has changed over the past several months, Iowa is now anyone's game despite Trump winning by 10 points in 2016. This is not only because Iowa is a fairly elastic state, but also its population is predominantly made up of the white working class voters with whom Biden has been making his notable gains in the polls. This has trickled down-ballot, where Joni Ernst is running for a second term in the Senate. As a source close to her campaign put it, "They should not be in a competitive race."

Once considered a rising star in the GOP, Ernst is in serious danger of losing her seat this November. Her opponent is Theresa Greenfield, one of Democrats' strongest candidates this cycle. She has a compelling story, having lost her husband while she was expecting their second child, and extols Social Security benefits as saving her family from the brink. Her candidacy has fueled record-breaking fundraising, which Ernst has pointedly noted is an effort to flip the seat. Ernst's statements comparing Trump's leadership on coronavirus to Obama's Ebola response, as well as her comments in support of filling a SCOTUS vacancy during a lame duck session, have helped Greenfield characterize her opponent as just another McConnell crony. It is important to note, though, that Iowa's elasticity is a double-edged sword. If pandemic conditions improve drastically before the election, Ernst is well-poised to benefit from a swing in the national mood.

6. Georgia, BOGO Senate races 
Republican incumbent - Toss-up

Home of President Jimmy Carter, the Peach State features not one, but two competitive Senate races this cycle, thanks to the retirement of Senator Johnny Isakson. However, the November special election is a jungle primary and there will almost certainly be a January runoff. This overview instead focuses on Republican incumbent David Perdue's campaign for a second term. 

Once a Democratic bastion, Georgia took a sharp turn to the right 20 years ago and Democrats have struggled since. However, this dynamic has started to reverse course thanks to growth in Atlanta and its suburbs, and Democrats are hoping to continue building on Clinton's gains in 2016 and Abrams' in 2018. The opponent in the regularly scheduled Senate election this year is David Perdue, first-term incumbent and first-cousin to former Governor of Georgia and current Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue.

Running against Perdue is Democrat Jon Ossoff, whose name folks might remember from the most expensive House race in U.S. history in 2017, which he narrowly lost to Karen Handel. This 33-year-old investigative journalist is running a disciplined (albeit generic) Democratic campaign, sticking to support for a public option, avoiding the large sweeping proposals of progressives, and labeling his opponent as a puppet of the corporate elite. Despite Ossoff trailing in fundraising, polling is already showing that this race will likely be decided at the margins, and there is reason to think this will carry through to November. Georgia is one of the most inelastic states in the country, thanks in part to a large, solidly Democratic African American population, and a large, solidly Republican rural white population. Ossoff can hope that a substantial get out the vote effort and demographic changes since 2016 will work in his favor, but Georgia is anyone's race.

5. North Carolina and the cursed Senate seat

Republican incumbent - Lean D gain

North Carolina is yet another state that has trended leftward for some years, although that trend has slowed down and today the state sits at 3 points to the right of the country on average. Republican incumbent Thom Tillis is running for a second term in North Carolina's infamous Class II Senate seat that has not reelected a Senator since 1996. His challenger is Iraq and Afghanistan war veteran Cal Cunningham. 

Another top recruit for Democrats this cycle, Cunningham is giving Tillis a tougher race than he was anticipating. Despite lacking the donor network of an incumbent, Cunningham is running neck-and-neck with Tillis on fundraising, including a record-breaking second quarter where he outraised Tillis 3 to 1. Tillis has been getting slammed for his vote supporting Trump's national emergency border wall scheme and comments that suggested the state's Hispanic population were to blame for spreading coronavirus. Over the past month, Cunningham has solidified his lead in the polls, with Tillis failing to lead in any of the 11 released since June 24. With less than 4 months until the election, Biden's competitive polling in the state, and North Carolina's relative inelasticity, this is beginning to seem like Cunningham's race to lose.

4. Maine, Kavanaugh on the ballot

Republican incumbent - Lean D gain

Democrats have had their crosshairs on this seat since Republican incumbent Susan Collins voted for SCOTUS nominee Brett Kavanaugh in 2018. A Crowdpac fund was immediately launched that raised over $4 million for Collins' eventual opponent, who we now know is Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon. Collins, who won election to her fourth term by a whopping 37 points, is perhaps the greatest victim this cycle of Trump-era hyper-partisanship. Once hailed as an icon of bipartisanship, Collins shattered this image with her Kavanaugh vote. Justice Kavanaugh's recent opinions in Supreme Court cases regarding women's rights defy Collins' stance that Kavanaugh is a man of precedence who respects Roe v. Wade as settled law, but Collins is digging in her heels. Polling agrees that her favorability has tanked, and along with it went her reputation as an independent voice for Maine. 

Indian-Armenian Sara Gideon has made windfall gains in fundraising due to the surge in enthusiasm to unseat Collins. In quarter two alone, Gideon raised $8 million, more than double Collins, and just received access to the $4 million Crowdpac fund after winning her primary. Altogether in the race so far, Gideon has outraised Collins $23 million to $16 million. These goliath funds will be plenty for saturating Maine's inexpensive media markets. Given Biden's lead in the polls, Clinton's 2016 win in Maine, Gideon's fundraising advantage, and the era's partisan divide, all signs are pointing toward a Gideon win this fall, though it might be close.

3. Arizona, money printer go brrr

Republican incumbent - Likely D gain

Once the home of Barry Goldwater, father of the modern conservative movement, Arizona is now a solidly purple state. Although in 2016 Trump narrowly won Arizona, in the 2018 midterms, Democrats flipped a seat in Arizona's House delegation for a 5-4 majority. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema became the first openly bisexual Senator in U.S. history and first female Senator from Arizona after winning Jeff Flake's vacated Senate seat. Sinema's opponent was the first female fighter pilot to command a squadron in combat and U.S. representative for Arizona's 2nd, Martha McSally. After McSally's narrow loss, Republican Governor Doug Ducey appointed her to John McCain's old Senate seat. He hoped that she could use her campaign experience and top-of-the-ticket support in a presidential election year to win the race for completing McCain's Senate term, which ends in 2022. However, things are not looking good for McSally.

Her opponent this time around is astronaut and former U.S. Navy combat pilot Mark Kelly. Widely considered Democrats' strongest recruit this cycle (except for Steve Bullock maybe), Kelly is the husband of former representative Gabby Giffords, who nearly died in the 2011 Tuscon shooting. As noted by Twitter, Kelly's strong bio and careful campaigning has led to truly insane fundraising numbers—he has hauled in $45.7 million, to McSally's $30.0 million, and posts a 2:1 cash on hand advantage. Some Republican strategists lambast McSally as a poor campaigner, but it could just be that Arizona Republicans have lost touch with a state that is slipping out of their grasp. That said, McSally's campaigning has drawn criticism from both sides of the aisle, like when she proposed a vacation tax credit in the midst of a pandemic. McSally is now faced with the prospect of losing her second Senate race in two years. Some say don't count her out just yet, but I wouldn't judge you if you did.

Veteran John James faces tough odds in his second Senate race | Image from @John James for Senate

2. Michigan, Gary who?
Democrat incumbent - Likely D hold

On the theme of losing two Senate races in two years, Republican combat veteran John James is competing again in Michigan after losing to Senator Debbie Stabenow in 2018. While a loss is a loss no matter how you spin it, he did outperform expectations in a blue wave year. Republicans were initially excited at the prospect of James' candidacy, as he would be the caucus' second African American Senator and they thought he could improve the party's image among the Black community. They argued James would fare better in a presidential election year, and against a lesser known incumbent, Gary Peters. However, Donald Trump has made it difficult for a Black man to run as a Republican this cycle, by stoking racial tensions and forcing James into an uncomfortable position wherein he can either support the GOP leader, or risk alienating the GOP base by speaking out.

Although James has reported some decent fundraising hauls, the polls are showing that a Senate seat will likely be out of his reach once again. Trump's 2016 win in Michigan seems more and more like a fluke as his reelection campaign drags on, and James won't stand much of a chance if Biden wins the state. This is fortunate for Gary Peters, who is by many measures an unimpressive first-term incumbent. He started his reelection campaign unknown to 36% of Michiganders. Regardless, thanks to partisan politics and a presidential election year, Peters likely has this in the bag.

1. Colorado, "I'm not cut out to be a Senator"
Republican incumbent - Likely D gain

Perhaps some of you remember the 2019 scramble to find a challenger to Republican incumbent Cory Gardner. It turns out that despite former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper's repeated denials, he never ruled out a Senate run. He ended his ill-fated presidential bid in August of last year to join the crowded Senate Democratic primary. Gardner made sure to capitalize on this change in tune, running advertisements mocking Hickenlooper for statements like "I'm not cut out to be a Senator." Most of the primary field cleared out upon Hickenlooper's entry, but not former Colorado Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff. Initially considered a washed-up longshot, Romanoff spun the primary into a contentious progressive vs. moderate fight, hammering Hickenlooper for his support of fracking. Romanoff managed this despite a middle-of-the-road, tough on crime, anti-immigration record as a state legislator. Compounding Hickenlooper's problems, the former governor faced ethics violation charges and floundered by skipping a subpoena. Nonetheless, Hickenlooper still won the primary by a solid margin. 

Looking back, it is hard to miss the irony among the clamoring to get Hickenlooper into the race, considering he has run a rather mediocre campaign. At the end of the day, a glass of water (D) could win the election here thanks to Colorado's newfound blue tilt and the national environment. Despite challenging a talented incumbent, surviving a contentious primary, and facing ethics violations, Hickenlooper will probably still win this race by double-digits and a margin greater than any other Democrat challenger this cycle.